Here are the basics about putting more vehicle trips on Estes Drive:
- The central question is what happens to traffic on Estes Drive and MLK Jr Blvd if this project along with others continue to be approved. We think the addition of 650 parking spaces and an entrance 800 feet from this major intersection will add appreciably to congestion on Estes Drive.
- Estes Drive is a busy over capacity east-west connector. Adding this many residential units on Estes within 500 yards of two public schools and church and many neighborhoods entrances would compromise mobility and public safety in the area.
- Both citizens and Council members acknowledge that traffic is a major concern on Estes Drive. Westbound Estes Dr. at the MLK Jr Blvd intersection currently (pre-COVID) backs up during PM rush hour to the schools and beyond to Franklin Street, imposing unacceptable wait times by any standard at the intersections. Aura’s only full-movement driveway will be on Estes Drive. According to the updated TIA it will barely allow ingress during peak hours. It will also have a right in/out driveway on MLK Blvd.
- This project does not promote transit oriented development (TOD). Because the project is located on a transit corridor and the planned Bus Rapid Transit line, the Town intended to promote public transit by limiting parking. This project calls for 658 parking spaces.
- Residential housing produces the maximum impact on AM and PM peak traffic on Estes Drive.
What does the updated Aura Traffic Analysis tell us?
On the surface the updated Aura Chapel Hill Development TIA would appear to say that traffic along Estes caused by Aura won’t be a problem if NCDOT and Aura road enhancements are built. Here are some of the reasons why the TIA study falls short and why the additional traffic caused by Aura will become a problem.
- The updated Aura December 2020 TIA focuses only on the Aura impact Estes average capacity during peak hours; vehicles must arrive evenly timed, not in bursts, to maintain today’s unsatisfactory traffic rating.
- Annual background traffic growth that accounts for growth elsewhere in town for this study is 1/2 of 1%. Whereas other recent TIA studies use 1 1/2%.
- Vehicles leaving Aura onto Estes Drive will deal with a failing intersection at peak afternoon hours with the worst possible traffic rating of F, even after suggested improvements. How will the developer explain to potential tenants that they will live in a traffic nightmare?
- The operating Town Guidelines for Traffic Impact Analysis have not been upgraded since 2001. Where is the RFP for updating the TIA specs to include real time modeling to show actual traffic flow, not just hourly averages?
- Traffic for residents that can only exit their residences onto Estes via Somerset will be 40% worse than today on average during the whole PM peak hour.
What will the Townwide Traffic model tell us?
The results of the town wide traffic model are important because the model measures cumulative traffic from development all over town, as well as new projects nearby. We want the town to do a complete job by including the 4 parcels nearby, as well as the redevelopment of University Place, along with other projects. The accuracy of the town wide traffic model will depend on the accuracy and completeness of the data supplied to the model.
The Town has already conducted lots of planning for this area. Before any rezonings are approved infrastructure is needed.
- A comprehensive traffic plan is needed for the area as recommended by the CW SAP. Aura should not take all the remaining capacity.
- Reduced residential density and increased retail density evens out traffic throughout the day by reducing go to work and coming home from work peaks. Neighbors would still like some retail amenity that makes Aura a desirable location to visit on foot and bike as well as by vehicle.
Questions and Answers Concerning Estes Drive Improvements
Correspondence with Town Engineer
Traffic studies: